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02.27.12 9:50 CHANGES IN THE BALANCE OF FORCES IN POWER STRUCTURES BY FEBRUARY 15, 2012We are pleased to present a short content of the 2011 last issue:1. While Dmitry Medvedev met with his supporters and the opposition leaders Vladimir Putin held meetings with political scientists, religions authorities, proxies and entrepreneurs. One of the most important results of the Medvedev’s conventions was a proposal (made by to INSOR) to take vice-president position in Putin’s team. The noticeable outcome of the meetings with Putin: he demonstrated mood to win the first round of elections with a "good result" (64-67%). It is obvious that Putin doesn’t care much about opposition but is going to do it only if it stays inside constitutional framework (without attempts to organize coup). The existence of probability of this coup was the reason that caused fierce debate over a special resolution in state parliament. Journalistic circles describe the proposal of the ruling party (initiator - A. Sparrow) as the document "against the Orange Revolution". Representatives of the “system’s opposition”, however, criticized this initiative. Medvedev suggested reassigning V.Zorkina as chairman of the Constitutional Court at the last allowed moment. This delay demonstrated his anxiety about his own prospects to become prime minister. Perhaps by taking this action he clarified that he intends Putin to give the government under his control (Putin’s promise). At the same time Putin has slowly begun to declare the abolition of Medvedev's initiatives (for instance, rejection of “winter” time adjustment). The next expected step in this direction is elimination of the law that sets the minimum level of alcohol in driver’s blood to zero. The public has impression that Medvedev had introduced all his unpopular initiatives to provide Putin with the chance to successfully cancel them. For the prime minister it looks like "error spotting and correction" (Medvedev’s errors). 2. We believe that massive changes in the executive branches and presidential administration will begin before the March 4 in order to prove the "seriousness" of proposed changes in Putin’s team. The resignation of Mikhail Sukhodolsky, the former chief of St. Petersburg police (de facto - one of the candidates for the ministerial position) is one of the most significant recent layoffs. It allows us to observe the groups of influence within the ministry of internal affairs and to assess their degree of impact on the decision-making process. 3. The presidential campaign reveals the weakness of the other (than Putin) candidates in contrast with the strength of the "core" one: the debate stressed that Putin’s strategy works - attempts to argue with the premier’s representatives (but not with himself) negatively affected the ratings of opposition candidates. As a result Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Gennadiy Zyuganov signed a framework agreement on cooperation (joint claims to CEC, etc.), Sergey Mironov joined the initiative. 4. "Marginal opposition" makes Grigoriy Yavlinsky its candidate on president seat. It seems like it wants to hold "an imitation of the election," where he will win. Then he will be promoted as an alternative to Putin ("National president"). After, he has chance to share the fate of Alexander Litvinenko, A.Politkovskoy, etc., what is needed to blame Vladimir Putin in his death. So Yavlinsky now needs as security as before. 5. The Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the "Apple" party have criticized the draft law on political parties (introduced by Dmitry Medvedev). Their motivation is fear to lose their future positions in the political field. At the same time the “United Russia” started talking about it’s re-branding and even about the division of the party into components. By taking these actions the "ruling party" may try to prevent the strengthening of “All Russian National Front” as an alternative to the “United Russia”. 6. Vladislav Surkov has been active in the new position of deputy prime minister - according to sources, cooperating with D. Rogozin he began to implement the project of "innovative intelligence", that is based on the concept of legal "industrial intelligence". For more information, see Product overview Subscription for access to the full material is available by request. Contact |
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