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01.17.12 8:25 CHANGES IN THE BALANCE OF FORCES IN POWER STRUCTURES BY 1st JANUARY 2012We are pleased to present a short content of the 2011 last issue:1. At the last EU summit Dmitry Medvedev spoke very sharply about some European officials, who called for re-election to the Russian State Duma (he said it was none of their business). Most likely, that was the very case when the President decided to give the European elites to understand that he had a willful character and that he was not happy to be considered a Putin’s lapdog. In response, the Strasbourg Court immediately started proceedings on an action brought in by Georgia against Russia (in 2008), which previously was disallowed. In the area of internal policy Dmitry Medvedev continues to cement ties with the United Russia members. A meeting was held in Gorki, where they discussed the party candidates for key positions in the State Duma. 2. Vladimir Putin goes on forming the structure of All-Russia People’s Front (ARPF), having demanded a 35% quota in the State Duma for the Front members from United Russia. In addition, having held annual live Q&A session with the citizens, he once again showed his aptitude for polemics. Nevertheless, in answer to the question “Who is your main enemy in the elections?” he confessed that his main enemy was himself (that is, Mr. Putin’s demonic image, created by his enemies, can really impede him in the future). However, we believe that a popular now slogan “Russia without Putin” is extremely harmful, since, if Mr. Putin is excluded from the political context, the whole system will risk going to pieces. Now, conservative Mr. Putin opposes the opposition, which severely criticizes him. As a result, the political system, influenced by this criticism, begins to change (see the current situation). A leave of Mr. Putin will rule out an object of criticism that is likely to destabilize the whole system so much that there is a serious threat for it to collapse. In this case, opponents of the Prime Minister will turn into his “small analogues” and destroy finally the system. As a result, there is a risk Russia’s splitting into an agricultural center, the Islamic Caucasus and some raw-materials protectorates (controlled by NATO) in the Urals, Eastern Siberia and the Far East. It is quite probable that such a plan exists indeed. 3. Sergey Naryshkin, who is rather close to Mr. Putin, was elected speaker of the State Duma (Aleksandr Zhukov and Ivan Melnikov were appointed First Vice-Speakers of the State Duma), Andrey Vorobyov became Head of the UR faction. A serious struggle between Vladislav Surkov and Vyacheslav Volodin for the post of Head of the Presidential Executive Office was suddenly cancelled; the post was occupied by Sergey Ivanov, Deputy Prime Minister. But, it is interesting that Mr. Surkov refused to head the Presidential Executive Office even temporarily, thus having demonstrated a deep knowledge of the Kremlin’s plans. Now, Vladislav Surkov has a moral right to stay in the Presidential Executive Office holding his post and continue the activity of the Kremlin’s “chief political strategist”. There is another appointment that is worth noting – Dmitry Rogozin became Vice-Premier of the Military Industrial Complex. Thereby a rumor about his appointment as Defense Minister in place of Anatoly Serdyukov was finally stopped. But still, the latter is expected to be discharged after March 2012 (although it is pretty pointless if there is a calculation on appeasing the military voters). 4. As is known, Vladimir Putin picked filmmaker Stanislav Govorukhin to run his campaign in next year’s presidential elections; A Just Russia members elected 85-year-old actress Rimma Markova to head the electoral headquarters of the party’s leader Sergey Mironov. There is no denying that they have a good sense of humor. 5. Vlentina Matvienko suggested renaming Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoys into ministers of the territories, which was an attempt at the functional of the future President of Russia (Vladimir Putin); in fact, this will deprive him of the function of control over regions, which will be delegated to the future Prime Minister (Dmitry Medvedev). Moreover, at a meeting of the State Council Vice Premier Dmitry Kozak proposed to decentralize partly the Russian Federation via redistributing financial flows and authorities between the center and the regions, which is said to be favourably accepted by President Dmitry Medvedev. As a result, sources stated once again increasing tension between the teams of the “power tandem” participants. It turns out that Valentina Matvienko and Dmitry Kozak opposed Vladimir Putin to some extent; lately the latter has been formulating quite a protective and conservative version of the future political system, recognizing, however, that changes are inevitable in the future. 6. Aleksey Kudrin’s appearance at a rally of protest on 24th December revealed a new trend in Mr. Putin’s team; transition to the opposition will allow retaining control over the situation on “the other side of the fence”. This trend first emerged when Sergey Mironov started to talk about his being in opposition, then an ARPF group was set up in the lower house of parliament within the United Russia faction, Mr. Cherkesov was elected to the State Duma from the Communist Party, and now Alexey Kudrin announced his desire to implement a so-called “liberal project” and, apparently, to head it. At the rally of 24th December he spoke about creation of an organizing committee aimed to realize the protesters’ potential (just he, Aleksey Kudrin, was supposed to act as a mediator). Thus, it is quite likely that another “Kremlin’s project” of a right-liberal party will be created employing protest moods. The so-called “Mr. Churov’s problem” is also used actively. The non-systemic opposition required his dismissal, but it looks like “calling attention to a worthless object”. 7. Grigory Yavlinsky moves to St.-Petersburg to work as a deputy of the Legislative Assembly. At the Yabloko convention, the party could nominate Aleksey Navalny as a candidate for President of Russia, but still Mr. Yavlinsky himself became the candidate from the party. Holding a rally on Bolotnaya Square, Yabloko has provided a platform for the entire spectrum of the political opposition, thereby Mr. Yavlinsky began to avenge the votes he believes were stolen from him at the election. Mr. Navalny himself, taking part in the rally on Academician Sakharov Avenue on 24th December, was more radical; that was demanded by the rules of the genre, otherwise the interest of his fans would have died very quickly. Most likely, the figure of Mr. Navalny will be marginalized and ousted out from the political arena in the near future. For more information, see Product overview Subscription for access to the full material is available by request. Contact |
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